Turning the tide: Britain ‘on the cusp’ of hitting herd immunity with 87 per cent now having antibodies against Covid while third wave cases are falling in EVERY age group in England and infections drop for seventh day in a row to 27,734
- EXCLUSIVE: Department of Health data shows Covid cases are now falling in every age group in England
- They are dropping fastest among adults in their twenties, by around 15 per cent in a day
- And are also falling among over-80s who have all received at least two doses of the Covid vaccine
Britain is close to achieving herd immunity with 87 per cent of the population showing resistance to Covid, with cases now falling across all age groups across the country.
The data is boosting hopes that the end of the third wave may now be in sight, despite top scientists previously warning that it was ‘almost inevitable’ that daily infections would spiral to 100,000 by next month, with one even warning they could reach double this figure.
But in an unexpected twist which has puzzled scientists, cases have actually fallen every day for the past week — with yesterday’s count being just half of what it was a week ago.
Department of Health data today revealed that infection rates are now ticking downwards in every age group in England, dipping fastest among twenty-somethings.
Scientists at University College London estimate the total population’s immunity is at 87 per cent, with the current threshold for herd immunity at 93 per cent due to the contagious delta variant.
Being so close to the threshold should make it harder for the virus to transmit.
Dr David Matthews, a virologist and coronaviruses expert from the University of Bristol, told The Telegraph: ‘In terms of herd immunity – by which we mean the virus has managed to reach everybody and therefore most people will have a level of immune memory – I suspect we’re very close to it.
‘Assuming nothing truly spectacularly leftfield happens then this pandemic is pretty much over for the UK. I suspect we will not see a major surge this winter, or any serious levels of fatalities.
‘The more we close the gap on the last 10 per cent who haven’t had the vaccine the better we will be. Everyone will eventually meet the virus and it is far better to do so vaccinated.’
His comments come after ministers declared Covid is ‘all over bar the shouting’.
Pointing to the consistent declining trend in infections, they added: ‘Covid is on the point of becoming something you live with.’
Asked whether Britain was at the point of herd immunity, the minister said: ‘Factually we are. We are there It’s just a fact, as around 90 per cent of adults have had a first dose of a vaccine. We are there.’
Experts said the downturn in cases was a ‘very good’ sign because it adds to mounting evidence that the third wave is in retreat. But they cautioned more data was needed before they could be certain the drop is permanent, and cases won’t tick up again following July 19 ‘Freedom Day’.
In another glimmer of hope, researchers also believe England’s hospitalisations will start to fall by the end of the week — mirroring a similar trend as seen in Scotland.
Figures show admission rates are already falling in Scotland, where cases began to drop around eight days after the country’s football team were knocked out of Euro 2020. Likewise, England’s drop in Covid infections began on July 19 — eight days after the Three Lions lost on penalties in an historic final against Italy.
Several members of SAGE have said a fall in Covid admissions would mark the beginning of the end of the third wave. But the number of infected patients needing medical care is still rising — albeit at a slower rate than it was.
But SAGE modeller Professor Mike Tildesley today said the pandemic isn’t all over ‘quite yet’ and warned the effects of Freedom Day are still yet to be seen in the data.
Boris Johnson said it was ‘too early’ to draw conclusions about the fall in the number of people testing positive for the virus.
It came as Britain recorded another 27,734 Covid cases today, down 37 per cent in a week for the seventh day in a row. But hospitalisations still rose and deaths increased by a quarter week-on-week.
In other Covid news:
- Ministers backed dropping quarantine rules for fully-vaccinated travellers from the EU and US today, as well as expats who received their inoculations abroad;
- And announced cruise holidays will be back on the cards from next month, allowing Britons to again board ships bound for popular European holiday destinations;
- It came as angry Britons continued flying to Spain today despite warnings the country could be moved to the ‘amber-plus’ list leaving them facing 10-day quarantine upon their return;
- Amid Britain’s Covid cases continuing to fall SAGE advisers said the crisis hasn’t ended ‘quite yet’ adding the seven days of falling cases could be down to people being unwilling to get tested for their holidays;
- Office for National Statistics report today found Covid survivors who get re-infected have lower viral loads than when they first became unwell, which may help stop the virus from spreading;
- And NHS England to get its first ever female boss after Departing chief executive Sir Simon Stevens’ deputy beats former Test and Trace boss Dido Harding to the top role.
This graph shows the daily percentage change in the seven-day Covid infection rate per 100,000 people split by age group. It reveals infections are falling fastest among young adults in their 20s (orange) by 15 per cent. Cases among 20 to 24 year olds fell from 1,091 per 100,000 on average on July 21, to 922.7 per 100,000 on July 22. But infections are dropping in all age groups. Among those in their early 80s (pale orange) they fell by 3.2 per cent from 74.9 per 100,000 on July 21 to 72.5 per 100,000 on July 22
This graph shows the seven-day Covid infection rate by age group since the start of June. It reveals cases are dipping in all age groups including older adults. It is difficult to see some lines bending downwards on the graph because of the different infection rates between age groups. Those aged 15 to 19 had the most cases (green) followed by 20 to 24 year olds (orange)
Boris Johnson (pictured at a police memorial today) has said it is still ‘too early’ to tell whether the fall in Covid cases is permanent. SAGE expert Professor Mike Tildesley warned the impact of Freedom Day is yet to be seen in the data
Department of Health data today revealed that infection rates are now ticking downwards in every age group in England. Pictured: Natasha Smith receives her first Covid jab at Ascot
Scotland’s Covid hospital admissions (blue) have begun to fall around 10 days after cases fell, data revealed, after cases also dipped (red). Experts say it is ‘reasonable’ to expect the same to occur in England, with the nation’s downturn in infections delayed compared to Scotland because of Euro 2020
England has seen Covid infections (red) fall for the last seven days but has yet to see the trend in its hospital admissions, which usually follow by around 10 days. Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline while England may not see admissions (blue) fall on the ‘exact same day’ after their Euros exit as Scotland did, hospitalisations have already begun slowing
Scientists say temporary factors like schools closing, last week’s hot weather and people not wanting to get tested before going on holiday may be behind England’s declining cases.
Others believe one of the major reasons for the drop — especially in younger people — is because groups are no longer meeting up indoors to watch the Euros.
Experts suggest the downturn in older adults could also be linked to warmer weather, allowing people to spend more time outdoors where the virus finds it harder to spread.
But the vaccines roll-out is also bound to have an impact, after more than 70 per cent of adults have received both doses including the vast majority of the over-70s.
Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, said cases in age groups may already be even lower because the latest figures are ‘about a week out of date’.
He hinted infections were dropping slower in older people because they tend to catch the virus from younger age groups. There will be ‘some lag’ between the different groups, he said.
Dr Jonathan Stoye, a virologist at the Francis Crick Institute, said the drop in Covid cases in all age groups was ‘very good’.
He told MailOnline: ‘But the key thing will be to wait until Friday when we will get the next round of results from the ONS (Britain’s largest Covid surveillance study).
‘One would predict it may be less sensitive to changes in the populations being tested, for example those resulting from school closures, than the Department of Health figures.
‘If the two measures are going in the same direction we would seem to be in a good place… unless, of course, the unlocking of July 19 causes a reversal.’
Department of Health data showed Covid cases were falling fastest among adults in their twenties last week, down by 15 per cent for the week ending July 22 compared to the day before.
But among older adults the decline was more gradual, suggesting cases were only just starting to drop in the age group. Infection rates dropped by just one per cent in adults in their late 80s.
The figures — provided by the Department of Health — are based on the rolling seven-day infection rate for age groups.
It is based on data from the actual day positive Covid tests were taken, as opposed to when they were recorded. For this reason, the most up-to-date statistics are seven days old.
The drop in cases was revealed by comparing the average infections between July 21 and July 22, the latest dates available.
Comparing infection rates to the week before showed cases are falling among young people, but were higher in over-45s than they were a week ago.
Experts said this was to be expected because cases had only recently started falling in older age groups.
Across England adults in their early twenties had the highest infection rate (947 cases in the last seven days per 100,000 people), followed by adults in their late twenties (923) and early thirties (842).
For comparison, cases were lowest in adults in their late 80s (68), followed by adults in their early eighties (73), and over-90s (75).
Scientists say the drop off in Covid cases could be caused by schools closing, recent warm weather and Euro 2020 boosting immunity in young people. Graph shows: The drop off in infections in England after the end of Euro 2020
Experts today also claimed hospitalisations in England could start to fall by the end of the week.
Professor Hunter said: ‘I think it reasonable to assume that sometime in the next few days we may start to see a fall in new hospitalisations, maybe not the exact same day [as Scotland did after the Euros].
‘In fact if you look at the rate of increase in England admissions, it does look like the epidemic of admissions is slowing.
‘Data on hospital admissions are often somewhat delayed before publication and Scotland’s especially can be delayed for almost a full week.
‘Of course whether such a fall is sustained after the effect of Freedom Day works its way into the system is still the big question. We will know at the weekend.’
Scotland’s Covid admissions — based on the seven-day average — began falling on July 10, when they peaked at 87 per day.
It occurred a full 18 days after the national team left the Euros on June 22 and ten days after infections started to fall.
The country’s cases peaked at almost 4,000 on June 30, Government data also shows.
England’s cases have already followed the same trend, with the number of positive tests declining after the national team lost in the Euros.
If the country’s admissions follow the same trend, they would be likely to peak by the end of the week.
Despite being on the rise with more than 800 infected people still needing hospital treatment every day, Covid admissions already appear to be slowing down across England.
Data shows the week-on-week percentage change — which measures how quickly hospitalisations are going up —has fallen every day for a week.
Growth rates went from 37.9 per cent on June 15 to 23.1 per cent on June 22.
Only the North East and Yorkshire — the country’s current Covid hotspot — still has admissions that are rising at pace.
Britain’s daily Covid cases drop for the SEVENTH day in a row: UK records 27,734 positive cases – down by 37% in a week but hospitalisations and deaths rise by up to a quarter
by Joe Davies for MailOnline
Britain’s daily Covid cases have fallen week-on-week for the seventh day in a row, according to official figures that add fresh hope that the third wave may be behind the country.
Department of Health bosses posted 27,734 positive tests today, down 37 per cent on last week’s figure of 44,104.
However, the downturn in infections is still yet to be reflected in hospitalisation numbers, which lag behind cases by around a fortnight. Another 825 Covid admissions were recorded on Saturday — the latest date UK-wide data is available for. It was 17 per cent higher than the figure the previous week.
But there are promising signs the rate of growth in hospitalisations is beginning to slow and top scientists believe numbers may even start to fall next week, mirroring a trend seen in Scotland.
Meanwhile, 91 deaths were recorded today, up by a quarter on last week’s 73. Deaths lag even further behind the hospitalisation statistics, meaning fatalities will be the last measure to eventually level off.
With infection statistics now pointing in the right direction, one senior Government minister last night claimed the coronavirus’s grip on the UK is ‘all over bar the shouting’. Even notoriously gloomy SAGE advisers believe the worst of the pandemic is now over.
In another glimmer of hope, separate Department of Health data analysed by MailOnline revealed infection rates are now ticking downwards in every age group in England.
Experts said it was a ‘very good’ sign because it adds to mounting evidence that the third wave is in retreat. But they cautioned more data was needed before they could be certain the drop is permanent, and cases won’t tick up again following July 19 ‘Freedom Day’.
Department of Health figures today show while hospital admissions across the UK are still rising week-on-week, their rate of growth is slowing down.
Data shows the week-on-week percentage change — which measures how quickly hospitalisations are going up — has fallen every day for a week.
It stood at 32 per cent on July 18, falling to 23.6 per cent on July 24.
Several members of SAGE, No10’s scientific advisory panel, have claimed a fall in Covid admissions would mark the beginning of the end of the third wave.
But Professor Mike Tildesley, a modeller at the University of Warwick, today said the pandemic isn’t all over ‘quite yet’, and warned the effects of ‘Freedom Day’ are still yet to be seen in the data.
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson today said it was ‘too early’ to draw conclusions about the fall in the number of people testing positive for the virus.
Separate data today revealed Scotland’s Covid hospitalisations are now falling in line with cases, raising hopes that England could soon follow suit.
Experts say one of the factors behind the drop in England is that people are no longer meeting up in large groups to watch the national team’s games in Euro 2020 tournament.
Cases rose quickest in men and young people during and following the tournament but began to drop in Scotland around eight days after the team were knocked out in the group stages by Croatia.
And likewise, England’s declining cases began on July 19 — eight days after the Three Lions lost on penalties in an historic final against Italy.
Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, claimed it was ‘reasonable’ to expect England to follow a similar timescale to Scotland in terms of its fall in admissions as well — which would see hospitalisations drop by the end of the week.
He told MailOnline that while England may not see admissions fall on the ‘exact same day’ after their Euros exit as Scotland did, hospitalisations have already begun slowing.
Professor Hunter said: ‘I think it reasonable to assume that sometime in the next few days we may start to see a fall in new hospitalisations, maybe not the exact same day [as Scotland did after the Euros].
‘In fact if you look at the rate of increase in England admissions, it does look like the epidemic of admissions is slowing.
‘Data on hospital admissions are often somewhat delayed before publication and Scotland’s especially can be delayed for almost a full week.
‘Of course whether such a fall is sustained after the effect of Freedom Day works its way into the system is still the big question. We will know at the weekend.’
EAST OF ENGLAND: Hospital admissions are still rising in the East of England but at a slow rate as of the most recent data
LONDON: Admissions in London were at 130 on July 25, down from 141 three days before as hospitalisations start to round off in the capital
MIDLANDS: Hospitalisations are also starting to round off in the Midlands, down to 133 on July 25 compared to 146 on July 21
NORTH EAST AND YORKSHIRE: The North East and Yorkshire has seen one of the highest upticks in admissions this summer and hospitalisations appear to be continuing to rise
NORTH WEST: Admissions are relatively flat in the North West, with 123 patients admitted on July 25 compared to 151 on July 19
SOUTH EAST: Hospitalisations are still rising but at a slow rate in the South East, which recorded 79 admissions on July 25
SOUTH WEST: Admissions did appear to be falling in the South West other than an on July 25 — the most recent date data goes up to— when there were 83 hospitalisations
Scotland’s Covid admissions — based on the seven-day average — began falling on July 10, when they peaked at 87 per day.
It occurred a full 18 days after the national team left the Euros on June 22 and ten days after infections started to fall.
The country’s cases peaked at almost 4,000 on June 30. Government data also shows.
England’s cases have already followed the same trend, with the number of positive tests declining after the national team lost in the Euros.
If the country’s admissions follow the same trend, they would be likely to peak by the end of the week.
Despite being on the rise with more than 800 infected people still needing hospital treatment every day, Covid admissions already appear to be slowing down across England.
Admission growth rates in England went from 37.9 per cent on June 15 to 23.1 per cent on June 22.
Only the North East and Yorkshire — the country’s current Covid hotspot — still has admissions that are rising at pace.
Questions remain as to whether the current decline in cases will continue or if they will tick up again once testing increases after people have been on their summer holidays, the weather takes a turn and children return to the classrooms in September.
But experts say a fall in admissions could be the clearest sign yet that the third wave is beginning to end and was not as big as was expected.
SAGE models released a week before ‘Freedom Day’ predicted infections could reach as high as 200,000 in a worst case scenario.
Speaking on Times Radio this morning, Professor Tildesley said: ‘Because schools in England closed last week, we haven’t got secondary school pupils doing regular lateral flow testing and so we’re not necessarily detecting as many cases in younger people.
‘It’s also been suggested by some that, possibly, because of a high number of cases, because of the summer holidays approaching, people might be less willing to ‘step up’ to testing when they have symptoms.
‘What we really need to do is monitor hospital admissions, because at the moment of course they’re still going up – now, of course there is a lag when cases go down, it always takes a couple of weeks before hospital admissions turn around.
‘But if we start to see as we get into August, if we start to see hospital admissions going down as well then I think we would have much stronger evidence to suggest that this third wave is starting to turn around.’
And yesterday Professor Graham Medley, chair of SAGE’s modelling group Spi-M, told MailOnline: ‘The current fall in cases is a bit puzzling, so there probably isn’t a simple explanation.
‘If infections were falling because of immunity, then it would not happen everywhere at the same time.
‘The only thing that happened everywhere in England at the same time was the football. We have also been vaccinating younger people in the past few weeks, and vaccination takes some time to develop immunity.
‘There is a changing in testing behaviour — although the number of positive tests has fallen, the proportion of tests that are positive has remained quite high.
He added: ‘The ‘pingdemic’ meant a lot of people isolating, and you can’t get infected if you are isolating so a side effect of the ‘pingdemic’ might be to reduce infection rates.
‘We will see in the coming days if hospital admissions start to fall. If they do, then it does suggest that we have got over this wave, which turned out to be quite small.
‘This doesn’t mean that we will not see more waves, but it is very encouraging.’